One year ahead of the 2027 presidential election, the Ifop-Fiducial barometer conducted for Le Figaro and Sud Radio highlights the absence of a natural candidate. As Frédéric Dabi points out, « no one has a majority of wishes », probably reflecting the fragmentation of the offer and a rejection of political personnel.
In this fragmented landscape, the Rassemblement National remains the strongest bloc. Jordan Bardella comes out on top with 44% of people wishing to be a candidate, and above all 74% predicting that he will be the most likely candidate in 2027. He is now well ahead of Marine Le Pen (39% wish, 52% forecast), weakened by the legal uncertainties weighing on her future. This development reflects a possible leadership shift within the RN. It should be noted that 77% of RN sympathizers consider that Marine Le Pen will be a candidate in the next presidential election.
In the central bloc, the hierarchy remains open, but Édouard Philippe is still ahead of the pack. He receives 36% of wishes and above all 67% of predictions (+8 points), making him the most credible candidate in this area. However, Gabriel Attal is gaining ground (31% wishful thinking, 54% prediction), buoyed by strong media exposure.
On the right, the situation appears more stable. Bruno Retailleau came out on top with 28% of wishes and 54% of predictions (+11), well ahead of his rivals. In particular, he outranks Xavier Bertrand, Michel Barnier and Laurent Wauquiez. According to Frédéric Dabi, « he has managed to lock in his candidacy », making him the most likely representative of his camp.
On the left, the situation is the opposite: no single figure has established a lasting position. Raphaël Glucksmann tops the list (26%), ahead of François Hollande (22%, up) and Bernard Cazeneuve (18%).
At the same time, Jean-Luc Mélenchon retains a central position: 57% of French people consider his candidacy likely. However, only 16% would like to see him run (against 72% who would not like him at all, corresponding to the highest rejection rate). On the other hand, François Ruffin is gaining ground (24% in favor, +4), appearing as a credible alternative on the left.
Lastly, a number of personalities from civil society, such as Michel-Édouard Leclerc (20% preferred) and Patrick Sébastien (15%), are attracting considerable interest. However, their prediction scores remain low, indicating a lack of electoral credibility. As Frédéric Dabi points out, « the French have accepted that they won’t be able to go all the way ».
