This sixth round of the Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI, Le Figaro, and Sud Radio initially suggests a political landscape that is highly favorable to Marine Le Pen. According to the various scenarios tested, she would receive between 31% and 36% of the vote in the first round and would consistently lead the second-place candidate by 11 to 19 points. Beyond her own standing, it is therefore also the size of the gap between her and her rivals that stands out in this round of polling.
Behind her, however, the race for second place would remain more open. Édouard Philippe would advance to the second round in all scenarios where his candidacy is tested, with his share of the vote varying depending on the degree of fragmentation among the candidates. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, however, would remain at a high level—generally between 14% and 17%—and could, in certain scenarios, trail Édouard Philippe by only a narrow margin. The centrist candidate’s position thus appears solid, though this does not mean the battle for second place is entirely decided.
On the left, Raphaël Glucksmann would stand out quite clearly among the figures surveyed who would participate in the Socialist primary. In a comparable scenario where Édouard Philippe represents the centrist bloc, he would garner 11% of the vote, compared to 3% for Olivier Faure, Ségolène Royal, and Jérôme Guedj, and 1% for Emmanuel Maurel. These margins would indicate, in the scenarios tested, a significantly higher level of support for Raphaël Glucksmann compared to the other candidates from this political spectrum.
On the right, Bruno Retailleau would range between 5% and 11% depending on the scenarios, with his support varying notably based on the candidate from the centrist bloc and the options available on the left. Finally, the most fragmented scenario would also show lower levels of support for several alternative candidates: François Ruffin would receive 3%, Dominique de Villepin 2%, and David Lisnard 3.5%. This proliferation of candidates would contribute to further dispersing voting intentions in the first round, without, in the scenarios tested, calling into question Marine Le Pen’s lead.
As with any survey of voting intentions, these results reflect the balance of power at the time of the survey and do not constitute a prediction of the election outcome. This is also the methodological principle reiterated by Ifop in its publications on presidential voting intentions.
